The "Great Recession": Almost over, or just beginning?

General discussions of interest to readers and fans of Harlan Ellison.

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Mark Tiedemann
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Re: The "Great Recession": Almost over, or just beginning?

Postby Mark Tiedemann » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:10 am

Some ruminations pertinent perhaps to the discourse.

http://marktiedemann.com/wordpress/?p=800

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FrankChurch
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Re: The "Great Recession": Almost over, or just beginning?

Postby FrankChurch » Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:40 pm

Hoard up on canned goods and water, that's all I can say.

Anthony Ravenscroft
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Re: The "Great Recession": Almost over, or just beginning?

Postby Anthony Ravenscroft » Mon Oct 17, 2011 9:31 pm

We're on the Titanic. Do we claw for a seat on a boat, or party our faces off? The middle ground is quickly eroding.

The "housing crisis" isn't over yet. A lot of those houses were bought cheap by amateur speculators, & now they're beginning to puddle up. Basic economics: if there's too much supply, the price goes down... but who's gonna buy it off YOU -- at a profit, yet? When the speculators start falling under PITI+ debt (principal, interest, taxes, insurance, plus bills for repairs, upgrades, & maintenance), the banks will have to call in the paper -- this time not beleaguered residents, but de facto landlords, so largesse will be minuscule -- & the process will repeat. With all that surplus, new-home construction will decline again.

If your property values are high & there's high local demand, then sell your house & bank the cash. Rent -- it leaves you more nimble. I hate "mobile homes" with a passion, yet I'm reconsidering, for the tactical advantage.

No, the worst is yet to come. I don't recommend stocking up on guns & gold coins, but make sure your car is well-maintained... :shock:

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FrankChurch
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Re: The "Great Recession": Almost over, or just beginning?

Postby FrankChurch » Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:27 pm

The second coming is at hand.

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Ezra Lb.
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Re: The "Great Recession": Almost over, or just beginning?

Postby Ezra Lb. » Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:47 pm

The future will neither be apocalypse or paradise - just more of the same ole same ole.

Living, dying, singing, crying, fucking, farting, laughing, sighing.
“We must not always talk in the marketplace,” Hester Prynne said, “of what happens to us in the forest.”
-Nathaniel Hawthorne, The Scarlet Letter

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NeonMosfet
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Re: The "Great Recession": Almost over, or just beginning?

Postby NeonMosfet » Sat May 12, 2012 4:28 pm

Something will happen. JP Morgan lost 2 billion. That is not a good sign. This time Jamie Diman really did it. If things were recovering, this could be the brick in the glass wall.
Myopia Through Convexed Harlequins

Anthony Ravenscroft
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Re: The "Great Recession": Almost over, or just beginning?

Postby Anthony Ravenscroft » Fri May 25, 2012 9:07 pm

I'm a bit of a compulsive counter. Some part of my brain, unless occupied with an interesting problem, notes & logs numbers. So, some random-seeming thoughts.
________________

Over the past couple of months, beef prices at the grocery store have inched upward. Cuts that cost me $3.50/lb a year ago are around $5 now.

The stated reason is that it costs a lot to truck beef around. Well, nonsense -- cat food (canned or bagged) is pretty much the same price as previously. And there's a LOT of beef produced within 100 miles, & not a catfood plant in sight.
________________

Ever notice the "relax delay" time on fuel prices? Nobody can explain it to me. That's where pump prices leap up within seconds of someone somewhere speculating aloud that something might cause some tiny restriction on availability at some time in the future... yet when this glitch fails to materialize, or is in fact proven outright bogus, prices will take weeks or months to return to the starting levels. This despite the fact that the gasoline at the pumps may have been there for days or even weeks, & in the delivery chain for weeks or longer. Can you imagine a corner grocer running endlessly around his store, peeling labels & changing prices on the basis of questionable guesses about next year's shortages & surpluses?
________________

Up here in the Outlands, housing prices look bizarre compared to my experiences in Santa Fe & Minneapolis. Rents are almost as high as a medium-sized city, yet comparable houses can be bought for half (or less) what you'd pay in that same city. Yet surprisingly few people buy, & only a few handsful become landlords.

In the Twin Cities, I knew people who'd buy a house with full expectation of moving onward in 3-5 years as their situations changed (job relocation, more children, fewer kids at home), & they'd readily factor in both an upgrade margin & a bit of non-inflationary loss, because the control of ownership was better than renting.

I recently had to pass up a nice property. Four bedrooms, nicely decorated, high ceilings, set on a short dead-end street with a nice river view at the edge of a good park. Oh, & another lot with a 20x30 church. :o Down to $69,000, with no takers. Around here, the house would rent in the $1000 range, which is a good ROI.

A two-bedroom (needing maybe $10,000 work, IME) is going for $16,500 -- that's $500-$700 rent waiting to happen; call it likely $5,000/year gross on a $30,000 investment. Or, another way: five grand a year that DOESN'T go into a landlord's pocket -- 5% down on a 30-year fixed comes out to something like $153/month, plus maybe $70/month taxes. In this huntin'-fishin' region, I know people who regularly spend thousands a year on snowmobiles, ice houses, & shotguns...

Educating my co-workers about rather elementary number-juggling is an upward struggle -- innumeracy is the most pernicious form of illiteracy in this socioeconomic climate. I was gratified to hear that one (age 24) has actually started a 401(k).

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FrankChurch
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Re: The "Great Recession": Almost over, or just beginning?

Postby FrankChurch » Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:55 pm

Them job numbers better get better or hello President Romney!


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