THE PAVILION ANNEX

General discussions of interest to readers and fans of Harlan Ellison.

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markabaddon
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby markabaddon » Mon Nov 29, 2010 11:53 am

Barber,

One aspect of the North Korean situation that puzzles me is China lack of involvement. North Korea is almost totally dependent on China for imports and for a direct tie to most industrialized nations, yet they have not taken steps to curb North Korea. Now to a certain extent I can udnerstand China's actions, as they are using North Korea as a destabilizing force in the region to increase their own power but at some point don't they have to say, "Um, Kim, bubbela, let's bring it back a few steps from the edge there, OK?" If that maniac does use nuclear weapons, the fallout will hurt China a helluva lot more than us
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FrankChurch
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby FrankChurch » Mon Nov 29, 2010 3:04 pm

According to Wikileaks North Korea has internal problems. I understand that North Korea saber rattles, this is what crazy countries do. In the real world we only have two choices: Bomb them or negociate. Even if that means negociate forever.

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Lori Koonce
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby Lori Koonce » Mon Nov 29, 2010 4:06 pm

Frank

You do realize that the Korean War never officially ended don't you..... They have been dealing with an armistice for the past 50 or more years. And after the war "ended" all we've done is occasionally shown up with firepower when it would be most helpful to the South. We've never actually used it, just let the North know we would if provoked.

I guess I'm more concerned with this than you are for a very understandable reason. If NK gets the right kind of bombs, you ass isn't gonna be blown to hell, but mine might. Makes one a bit more concerned if ones life is hanging on the actions of others. Taking the nukes outta the picture, we CANNOT let NK get away with what they are attempting.

And from a more practical perspective, if we were to go to war; where the hell would we get the personpower to do so? The nation is all ready having a hard time finding personnel to keep the two wars we are in going, why throw in another?

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Rick Keeney
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby Rick Keeney » Mon Nov 29, 2010 4:57 pm

This question fits better n the music board, but I've no indication how many of us visit that thread, so:

any Budgie fans in here?

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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby Moderator » Mon Nov 29, 2010 5:53 pm

MARK - North Korea serves as a cushion against having a South Korean neighbor on China's doorstep. Militarily China prefers the comfort that any invasion of their territory must first get through the DPRK (North Korea). They don't really fear an invasion, but South Korea is an economic powerhouse with a strong military and demoncratically elected government. Best to keep the rivals apart.

In Kim they have a crazy but reliable dictator who will keep his internal peace and prevent refugees from storming across the border into Chinese territory. China fears a mass exodus of North Koreans into their borderlands should Kim lose power, so keeping the dear leaders' family as a defacto monarchy serves their interests. To China, the DPRK is also a heckuva bargaining chip with the US.

_____________________________________________________________

RICK - No. Little birds leave me cold...though they do seem to hold the interest of my cat.
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FRANK - In order to negotiate effectively you must have the confidence that whatever is negotiated is both dependable and enforceable. The DPRK has demonstrated, many times, that neither are worthwhile expectations. They negotiate freely, are frequently the first to walk from the room, and once an agreement is made they go off and do whatever it was they want to do anyway, in violation of both the terms and the spirit of what was agreed upon. Each time they violate a previous agreement, they ratchet up the stake for the next round. If you simply look at the history of the last fifty years you'll see it all laid out very clearly and unequivocably.
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Ezra Lb.
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby Ezra Lb. » Mon Nov 29, 2010 8:23 pm

I'm about a third of the way through David Halberstam's history of the Korean War, THE COLDEST WINTER, and a little history does illuminate the situation. Kim Il Sung was installed by the Soviets at the end of the war and remained a Soviet puppet for many years. He could make no move militarily without permission from Stalin.

But Kim was a complete fanatic who believed his own bullshit. He was obsessed with unification of the peninsula and had nothing but contempt for the Americans and the Southern leadership. He was convinced he could simply march south and the people would rise and support him.

He finally coinvinced Stalin to give tacit approval but Stalin warned him he could expect no Soviet military support if things went bad. Mao was still consolidating his newly won power and was himself deeply dependent on the Russians so he reluctantly promised help.

The North Koreans are much closer to the Chinese since the Soviet U nion collapsed but the realtionship has always been rocky. As Steve pointed out, since the failure of the invasion the Chinese have always desired to maintain the buffer that NK provides but it's a mistake to think the the Chinese run Korea (as many of our right wing seem to think).

NK is a loose cannon, frequently useful to the Chinese but also frequently a pain in the ass. In Cold War terms I think the Chinese would prefer an East Germany to their south but they would settle for a Yugoslavia. But how to "transition" out the current psychotic crew without causing a bloodbath?
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markabaddon
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby markabaddon » Tue Nov 30, 2010 1:28 pm

Barber, I agree with you about North Korea serving as a buffer between China and South Korea as well as being a bargainign chip to use with the US, but I do not agree that Kim is reliable, even for the Chinese. His regime is brutal, and performs the function that China desires very well, but he is starting to engage in gamesmanship with South Korea and that ain't in China's interests either. I did a fairly lengthy paper on gamesmanship during the Cuban Missle Crisis back at Cornell and while this conflict has not reached that level yet, there are similarities to that situation which could charitably be described as uncomfortable.

China does not want North Korea to engage in a full scale conflict with South Korea but I cannot predict what Kim will do if the Chinese try to reign him back. That is problem when you ally yourself with madmen, you can never tell what may set them off and have them turn on you
Governments, if they endure, always tend increasingly toward aristrocratic forms. No gov't in history has been known to evade this pattern. And as the aristocracy develops, gov't tends more and mroe to act exclusively in the interests of the ruling class

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Steve Evil
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby Steve Evil » Tue Nov 30, 2010 1:43 pm

According to the British press, China's sick and tired of North Korea, and ready to leave it to it's devices. Maybe it won't abandon the country exactly, but there is evidence it grows weary of coddling it.

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Steve Evil
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby Steve Evil » Tue Nov 30, 2010 1:47 pm

Rick Keeney wrote:This question fits better n the music board, but I've no indication how many of us visit that thread, so:

any Budgie fans in here?


Hell yeah! " Breadfan, open up your mind, open up your purse. . ."

You gotta visit the Metal thread. Tons o' people hang there. . .

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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby Moderator » Tue Nov 30, 2010 2:43 pm

Steve Evil wrote:According to the British press, China's sick and tired of North Korea, and ready to leave it to it's devices. Maybe it won't abandon the country exactly, but there is evidence it grows weary of coddling it.


I found the inclusion of such comments to be one of the few upsides of the WikiLeaks fiasco.
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FrankChurch
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby FrankChurch » Tue Nov 30, 2010 6:05 pm

We need someone with top secret clearance to leak some more stuff. Freedom is telling us what our criminals are doing behind our backs.

Jefferson was right--we need newspapers before we need government.

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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby Moderator » Tue Nov 30, 2010 7:08 pm

FrankChurch wrote:We need someone with top secret clearance to leak some more stuff. Freedom is telling us what our criminals are doing behind our backs.

Jefferson was right--we need newspapers before we need government.


Frank, what you're missing is that there are two victims here. Yeah, yeah, keep America open. I'm semi-okay with that philosophy, though the courts recognize that some state secrets are legal.

But the governments at the other end of some of the documents -- China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and many others -- are not enlightened and liberated and the disclosures could cost many people their jobs and even lives. Any informational disclosure which costs an innocent person their life is not morally open for debate. If a single person dies as a result of the deliberate leak, of comments and disclosures which would not normally affect or impact their lives, it becomes at the very least manslaughter and at the most murder charges for Julian Assange.
- I love to find adventure. All I need is a change of clothes, my Nikon, an open mind and a strong cup of coffee.

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FrankChurch
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby FrankChurch » Tue Nov 30, 2010 7:26 pm

While we talk about this I want to mention the stolen sham elections recently done in Haiti. Aristide's political party was banned from being in the race and Aristide is barred from Haiti--by us!

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Lori Koonce
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby Lori Koonce » Tue Nov 30, 2010 8:49 pm

FrankChurch wrote:While we talk about this I want to mention the stolen sham elections recently done in Haiti. Aristide's political party was banned from being in the race and Aristide is barred from Haiti--by us!



Frank, tell me this. How the hell can you tell all the way from Ohio that the election ie a sham, when all the people who were acutally there said it wasn't. And they are experts and you are qualified to make your statement because WHY.

I don't expect an answer, I never get one when I expect facts from you.... But I gotta keep on trying.

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FrankChurch
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Re: THE PAVILION ANNEX

Postby FrankChurch » Wed Dec 01, 2010 2:04 pm



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